Daily Market Outlook, September 10, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Global equities posted their sixth day of positive returns on Wednesday, largely driven by significant gains in technology stocks and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might implement interest rate cuts in response to an ongoing decline in employment figures. In South Korea, the stock market appeared poised to achieve a record closing print, while markets in Japan and Hong Kong also showed solid gains. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index is now hovering just 2% away from its highest level in 2021, while the global all-country benchmark has achieved growth for six consecutive days, reaching another all-time high. Futures for US equities also indicated a bullish sentiment. Additionally, oil prices experienced a sharp increase following an Israeli airstrike in Qatar, which raised concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East crisis. In light of further indications of a deteriorating labour market, investors are keenly awaiting inflation data set to be released in the upcoming days. This data will play a crucial role in shaping the discussions at next week’s Fed meeting as well as influencing the trajectory of possible rate cuts extending beyond 2025. This situation poses a critical evaluation of Wall Street's capacity to sustain the gains seen throughout this month. Money market forecasts suggest that the Federal Reserve might execute between two and three rate cuts within the current year, with important releases of US producer and consumer price index data expected later this week. In China, consumer prices dropped beneath the zero threshold for the first time in three months, signalling the persistence of deflationary pressures within an economy that appears to be on the brink of a slowdown. Traders are also focused on the potential for collaboration between the United States and the European Union to exert pressure on Russia, encouraging them to engage in negotiations over the ongoing situation in Ukraine. President Trump has expressed his willingness to join an initiative aimed at imposing broad new tariffs on China and India, both of which are significant buyers of Russian oil, and has indicated his intentions to discuss trade with Indian Prime Minister Modi “in the coming weeks”.
The Federal Reserve continues to be the key narrative influencing global markets. Meanwhile, European investors should remain vigilant about geopolitical events, especially after Poland, a NATO member, recently shot down Russian drones that it claimed violated its airspace during an assault on western Ukraine. In French politics, the spotlight is on the unpopular President Emmanuel Macron, who has appointed 39-year-old loyalist Sebastien Lecornu as his fifth prime minister in under two years, raising questions about how long they can retain their positions. The results of the European Central Bank's two-day meeting, which begins today, are more predictable, with economists largely in agreement that interest rates will remain unchanged. A month earlier, there was a division among economists regarding a possible rate cut, but with unemployment hitting a record low and inflation near target levels, many have shifted their cautious stance.
Overnight Headlines
UK PM Sets Up ‘Budget Board’ To Cement Grip On Economic Policy
UK Seeks Greater Market Access In China As Minister Kyle Resumes Talks
China CPI Falls More Than Expected, Adds To Deflation Worries
Trump Presses EU To Impose 100% Tariffs On China, India To Squeeze Putin
Fed Seen On Track For Three Rate Cuts This Year, Starting Next Week
Microsoft To Pay For Anthropic Models To Power Office 365 Copilot
Oracle Shares Jump To Record On Cloud Infrastructure Outlook
Supreme Court Temporarily Allows Trump’s $4B Foreign Aid Withholding
Apple Launches ‘Skinny iPhone’ While Holding Prices Despite Tariff Costs
Gold Holds Just Below Record Ahead Of US CPI Data
Elliott Management Takes Over 5% Stake In Bill Holdings
China’s Alibaba Fuels E-Commerce War With $140M Subsidy Plan
J&J’s ‘Pretzel-Shaped’ Device Approved To Treat Bladder Cancer
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1600 (EU1.02 billion), 1.1650 (EU822.3 million), 1.1505 (EU752.7 million)
USD/JPY: 140.00 ($995 million), 146.50 ($902.3 million), 143.25 ($680 million)
AUD/USD: 0.6275 (AUD938.3 million), 0.6000 (AUD825 million), 0.6550 (AUD797.6 million)
USD/CAD: 1.3635 ($400 million), 1.4400 ($391.7 million), 1.3725 ($300 million)
USD/BRL: 5.8000 ($306.7 million)
GBP/USD: 1.3075 (GBP458 million), 1.3475 (GBP390 million)
USD/CNY: 7.2675 ($318.5 million), 7.0675 ($300 million)
NZD/USD: 0.5800 (NZD515.1 million), 0.5870 (NZD370.6 million), 0.5170 (NZD300 million)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 5/9/25
Equity fund speculators have reduced their net short position in the S&P 500 CME by 52,369 contracts, bringing the total to 375,892 contracts. Equity fund managers have also decreased their net long position in the S&P 500 CME by 16,318 contracts, now totaling 851,040 contracts.
Speculators have increased their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 218,016 contracts, reaching 2,681,987 contracts. Net short positions in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures have been trimmed by 15,471 contracts to a total of 868,358. Additionally, net short positions in CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures have increased by 33,001 contracts, leading to a total of 1,296,083 contracts. The net short position in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures has also risen by 14,274 contracts to 263,219. Speculators have upped their net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 41,255 contracts, resulting in 77,268 contracts.
In the cryptocurrency realm, the net short position in Bitcoin stands at -902 contracts. The Swiss franc shows a net short position of -25,888 contracts, while the British pound reports a net short position of -33,140 contracts. On the other hand, the Euro has a net long position of 119,592 contracts and the Japanese yen shows a net long position of 73,258 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6440 Target 6600
Below 6420 Target 6370
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.1750 Target 1.15
Above 1.18 Target 1.1910
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.36 Target 1.30
Above 1.3650 Target 1.3850
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.49 Target 1.45
Above 1.51 Target 1.54
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 3500 Target 3700
Below 3400 Target 3300
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 110k Target 118k
Below 109k Target 105k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!