Daily Market Outlook, July 25, 2024

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

“Tech Wreck Continues To Weigh On Risk Sentiment”

On Thursday, most Asian stock markets are experiencing a decline, influenced by the overall negative signals from global markets. The drop is primarily driven by significant decreases in technology stocks, following the trend of the tech-heavy Nasdaq, after several major U.S. tech companies reported unsatisfactory quarterly results. Additionally, investors remain apprehensive due to ongoing worries about the decelerating growth in China, the world's second largest economy. Continuing from the significant declines in the last session, the Japanese market is experiencing a sharp decrease on Thursday, in line with the overall negative trends in global markets. The Nikkei 225 is dropping by almost 3 percent, approaching the 38,000 level, with substantial losses in most sectors driven by leading index companies and technology stocks.

Thursday will see the release of business confidence from Germany and monetary aggregates from the euro area, making it a relatively quiet day for European economic news. Stateside the only release of note will be jobless claims which have started to tick up of late

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

China Cuts One-year Policy Rate By Most Since 2020
BoJ To Weigh Rate Hike, Detail Plan To Halve Bond Buying
Democrats To Nominate Harris Running Mate By Aug. 7
US Warns Of Investments From ‘Foreign Threat Actors’
Biden Says Time For ‘Younger Voices’ In Oval Office Speech
Bond Market Is Now More About Recession Than Election
Japanese Officials Quiet On Forex As Yen Sharply Rebounds
Japan Leads Record $989B Year Of Asian Investment In US
Extended USDJPY Sells to 152.00, Awaits US GDP Data
Aussie Declines Admist Falling Commodity Prices
Israel's Netanyahu, Seek Support In Face Of War Protests
The Commodities Feed: Oil Supply Risks Linger
Blackrock Leads Ether ETFs Rack Up $100 Mln

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

EUR/USD: 1.0830 (865M), 1.0850-55 (1.2BLN), 1.0870 (651M), 1.0915 (554M)
EUR/CHF: 0.9580-90 (373M). EUR/GBP: 0.8355 (1BLN)
AUD/USD: 0.6520 (200M), 0.6615-20 (333M), 0.6640 (647M)
USD/CAD: 1.3750 (526M), 1.3800-10 (1BLN)
USD/JPY: 152.07 (250M), 152.50 (660M), 153.00-10 (930M)
AUD/JPY: 100.00 (670M)

CFTC Data As Of 16/7/24

Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 19,908 contracts to 997,340
Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 28,517 contracts to 370,142
Japanese yen net short position is 151,072 contracts
British pound net long position is 132,902 contracts
Euro net long position is 24,749 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -49,793 contracts
Bitcoin net short position is -579 contracts